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Convergent Exponentials Hypothesis
CONVERGENT EXPONENTIAL CURVES GOVERN OUR BEHAVIOR??

To better understand our collective human future it is important to identify and quantify the systems that are changing the fastest and fueling the greatest amount of change.

Four quantifiable human-related systems that are changing very rapidly are Communication (C), Human Intelligence (H), Information (I), and Technology (T).  It appears that these are all increasing at exponential (or at double-exponential rates). 

While it is widely accepted that technology is growing at an exponential rate, it is not so commonly believed that Communication, Human Intelligence, and Information are also changing at an exponential rate.  But, for good or for ill (or somewhere in-between), contrary to popular awareness, it appears these domains are in fact changing at exponential, or faster, rates. 

First off, technology:

Technology (Widely accepted): It is widely accepted that technology is increasing at an exponential rate.  Scientist, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil compellingly argues that new scientific paradigms are being uncovered at a double-exponential rate (actually faster than straight-up exponential growth).  Many business CEOs, scientists and scholars subscribe to this belief. 

And now the other three:

Communication (Obscure, yet readily observable): The exponential rate of communication increase, particularly human-centric communication increase (and probably the general planetary rate of communication), can be glimpsed via the cascading S-curves indicating the adoption rate of Interactive Communication Technologies (ICTs).  ICTs, defined as technologies that allow for dynamic human communication, include books, the telegraph, radio, television, and the world wide web.  (Other ICTs may include cave paintings, chants, whistling, songs, money, and language itself.)   Over time each of these ICTs is adopted by the vast majority of the worldwide human population.  And each time a new ICT is born it diffuses faster than any previous ICT.  In Diffusion of Innovations (most recent edition), Everett Rogers graphically plots information collected by Vijay Gurbaxani and creates a nice image of overlapping, or cascading, ICT diffusion curves.  At a glance, this image indicates that we are generating and adopting faster modes of communication at an accelerating rate.  To me, this chart screams “exponential increase in communication.” 

Human Intelligence (Most contentious): The Flynn Effect shows that since 1900 the average human IQ has been rising steadily.  Flynn himself has supposed that this may be at an exponential rate.  The data corroborates.  Go check it out.  It will blow your mind… and make you smarter! ;)

Information (Slam dunk, quantitatively proven): Berkeley scholars Peter Lyman and Hal R. Varian have conclusively shown that the total amount of information on the planet is increasing at an exponential rate. See: http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/printable_report.pdf

While it may be premature to conclusively state that C,H,I & T are each evolving at an exponential rate, the existing data certainly seems to support the hypothesis.  Personally, it makes a great deal of sense, considering the overlap of each of those areas.  If one or two are evolving at lightning speed, then it logically follows that the others should be as well. 

The ultimate conjecture here is that these domains are evolving autocatalytically, convergently, endogenously, or recursively (whichever term you may prefer) at exponential (or faster) rates.

Fortunately, each of these domains is quantifiable and allow for quantitative analysis.

The implications of a convergent exponential increase of Communication, Human Intelligence, Information and Technology are rather serious, indeed.  If true, this new framework for understanding human-related dynamics can change the way we view the world in which we live.